Extreme valuations can persist much longer than expected, but they also create an important asymmetry. The key is identifying what could actually bring valuations back toward historical norms, rather than simply assuming mean reversion.
Exactly the asymmetry that got me started. Assuming mean reversion is lazy, the real work is naming what could force it. That is exactly what my recent series set out to do: map the catalysts, the debt, the stretched consumer, and the money moving in circles inside the AI trade. Not a prediction, a map. Curious whether you think any of them is the one that matters most.
Extreme valuations can persist much longer than expected, but they also create an important asymmetry. The key is identifying what could actually bring valuations back toward historical norms, rather than simply assuming mean reversion.
Exactly the asymmetry that got me started. Assuming mean reversion is lazy, the real work is naming what could force it. That is exactly what my recent series set out to do: map the catalysts, the debt, the stretched consumer, and the money moving in circles inside the AI trade. Not a prediction, a map. Curious whether you think any of them is the one that matters most.